Runner-Runner-Rebuy

The BBTwo went by so fast, its hard to believe that Thursday is already the Tournament of Champions. I was lucky enough to win myself a seat by way of the Big Game last month and want to to first send out huge props to Al for setting up such a great overlay with Fulltilt by getting them to kick in not only a $1000 freeroll for the top 50 finishers, but an $18,000 package to the Aussie millions for the TOC winner.

Now, on to business. I'm a lunatic stat collector/analyzer. I collect stats, crunch the numbers, write programs to crunch the numbers, re-collect, re-crunch, ad nauseum. I do this for fantasy football, fantasysportslive, poker, and sometimes just for fun. I run stat collection 24/7 on many poker sites and have amassed a huge database of player statistics. I eventually had to move my collections to a server for faster database lookups and the ability collect from many tables at many sites at once.

Sooooooo.....looking ahead to the BBTwo TOC, I pulled up stats on all the entrants, looked though many hands, and tried to build a picture of how they play. Now, obviously, I'm not going to share specifics like percentages and specific hand ranges by position that I have identified as useful, but based on my stats I will present a general assessment of each player and group them into threat tiers. I also realize that with this information, players might change the way they play to try to bollox me or other readers up, but that's ok, this just seems like a fun thing to do.

One last thing, I certainly mean no offense to anyone's game - my comments are made entirely on the stats collected and in some cases the number of hands I have on a person (> 5000) are definitely not adequate to make solid judgments.

1. jeciimd - Looks like jec started out on PokerStars with a typical tight/weak blogger style, but as he transitioned most of his play over to Fulltilt, his game also transitioned. His opening hands have become less restricted (perhaps a tiny bit too loose), and he shows aggression throughout all streets. His stats have been relatively consistent over the past few months, so its hard to determine if his many recent strong finishes are due to better starting hands or better reads on other players. His stats alone put him solidly in the Tier 2 group of players.

2. jjok - Another Tier 2 player, jjok plays a semi-loose aggressive game. Older stats show he has tightened up a bit to get here - in the past he played like a maniac, either scaring his table into submission, or getting his ass handed to him in dominated situations. Not afraid to move in with the Hammer in a short stack situation (my KK sucked out on him in the vegas tourney).

3. summer_babe - I was very surprised by Iggy's stats. For some reason, I don't have that many hands on him, but his stats show a tight/weak style. However, he is one of the few tight/weaks that show profitable play. It is possible that it may be an aberration, or perhaps his post flop weak play is an indication of solid reading of betting patterns. Not sure, but stats peg him as a Tier 3 player. *see caveat in comments*

4. lucko21 - Back in his Party Poker days, lucko was a real fishy character. Very loose, and willing to call down with dominated hands. Some might think that's how he still plays, only difference is that he sucks out all the time now. But they would be wrong, his play over time has tightened up (still marginally loose), and his aggressiveness has taken the place of his passiveness. Overall a semi-loose aggressive Tier 2 player. A pattern is beginning to form. Lets see where the next one takes us.

5. XxMagiciaNxX - Man, this guy has been a thorn in my side. Whenever I'm at a table with him, it feels like he can see my hole cards. My initial thoughts are that he is a very solid semi-loose aggro that has the timing of a cesium clock. Stats say - semi-loose aggro. Used to be tight/weak, game has grown over time. Another Tier 2 player.

6. Loretta8 - Plays on multiple sites. Preflop aggro-maniac, postflop weakling. Pure pre-flop player who can be easily outmaneuvered post-flop, but makes it very hard to see flops with him. Tier 3 player, but be careful.

7. Huntsvegas - Again, another Tier 2 player who started out on Stars as a fishy passive calling station, but turned into a semi-loose aggro. Seems to be a fairly consistent theme among the bloggers.

8. Kajagugu - Kaja gets around. Got him/her on many sites. Changes gears between tight/weak and semi-loose/aggro. Be careful and watch for gear changes. Just barley not Tier 1 stats, so far Kaja is probably the top Tier 2 player on the list.

9. dnasty13 - Looks like dnasty learned to play on Ultimate, and boy was he bad there. The worst kind of calling station. However, like almost everyone on this list, he has turned his game into semi-loose aggro. Solid Tier 2 player.

10. -o-LuckTruck-o- - I don't have many hands on LuckTruck, but what I do have suggests the recurring theme - Tier 2, semi-loose aggro.

11. jamyhawk - Again, semi-loose (maybe a bit looser) aggro, but with an unprofitable history. This puts him in Tier 2, but towards the bottom. However, he knows how to pick a horse, and I had to ship him $20 when Astin took out Maudie in the Big Game.

12. Mike_Maloney - This guy is good. Really good. Very selective, very aggressive. Easily the top player on the list so far (as far as stats show). Changes gears, always bets hard, and puts you to decisions. Watch out, or this shark will eat you.

13. VinNay - Started out tight/weak on Party, moved to loose-aggro nutcase, back to tight/weak, and finally settled on semi-loose aggro. Tiltable. Tier 2.

14. SnailTrax - Our first Rock. Tight/weak pre-flop, aggro post flop. I wish I had more to say about daddy, but I don't have a huge hand history on him, and I haven't been at many tables with him. Tier 3, and hope he's not directly to the left of Loretta8, or she will chip up by blinding him to death. *see caveat in comments*

15. Budohorseman - Sorry Bud, but based on your stats, your our first Tier 4 player. Calling station all the way. Aggro pre-flop, but can't get away from anything. Must have gotten great cards to take down one of the qualifying events.

16. ricky424 - Just so Bud doesn't have to be alone, ricky will join him in Tier 4. A tight/weak preflop player, aggro post-flop. Very easy to see when ricky is ahead. Almost no variation in his play. I wish I knew that 3 handed in the Riverchasers a few weeks back.

17. cmitch - Another player solidly in the Tier 2 group of semi-loose aggros. I've played at many tables with cmitch. He has good timing, and can change it up pretty well.

18. RecessRampage - Hmmmm....are cmitch and Recess the same person? They have nearly identical stats. I mean, DAMN close. I'll have to go back and see if I notice any chip dumping from one player to the other.....Tier 2.

19. cracknaces - Now here is a player who has come a loooooong way. From calling station, to timid weakling, into semi-loose aggro and then finally settling on Tight/Aggro, crackin has done it all. I'm wondering if it is actually different players just using the same ID on different sites. In any case, on Fulltilt, crackn is a full blown Shark. Tier 1, just give him your chips now. He changes gears often, always bets aggressively when in a hand, and busts many people with his great timing. Fear him.

20. whiskigrl - Sorry to say it whiski, but your a donk. A Tier 4 player, who way too often lets other hands catch up.

21. PirateLawyer - Barley a Tier 3 player. Not very aggro post-flop. Not as bad as whiskigrl, but close. Also picks better horses than me.

22. actyper - Plays at tons of sites. Looks like actyper learned to play on Pacific, and played pretty badly there. More recently, is a semi-loose aggro Tier 2 player. I have never played at a table with actyper.

23. twoblackaces - I wish this was more interesting, but no, another semi-loose aggro Tier 2 player. I might have to break the Tier 2 players down a bit more, but I doubt I have the time to dig deeper.

24. emptyman - I knew there was a reason empty was always getting deep. You swimming with the Sharks while in a hand with empty. Aggro, tight, mixes it up, and very crafty. Our third Tier 1 player.

25. Astin - Tier 2. Same as all the others. Yeah, I know, the comments are getting shorter, but this is taking longer than I thought it would, so deal.

26. Julius_Goat - Straight up Maniac. Won his way in with an essay. Can drop mad science. Will get in behind, don't be afraid to call off your stack to him. Tier 3 or 4, not exactly sure.

27. Fuel55 - Also won his way in with an essay, but is a Tier 2 semi-loose aggro like most of us. Will try to reverse-imply presto when a 5 flops. Don't fall for it. Statistically, it looks like he is more than willing to lay down presto post-flop, so don't think he will always play it long and hard.

Tier Summary

Tier 1 (good shot at winning) - Mike_Maloney, cracknaces, emptyman

Tier 2 (in the hunt) - jeciimd, jjok, lucko21, XxMagiciaNxX, Huntsvegas, Kajagugu, dnasty13, -o-LuckTruck-o-, jamyhawk, VinNay, cmitch, RecessRampage, actyper, twoblackaces, Astin, Fuel55

Tier 3 (not a great shot at winning) - summer_babe, Loretta8, SnailTrax, PirateLawyer, Julius_Goat

Tier 4 (stay at home) - Budohorseman, ricky424, whiskigrl,

Damn, that's it I guess. More work than I thought and I started off better than I finished. But, let the angry comments begin.

One more thing - I STRONGLY believe that the Rooster should get a seat in the TOC. I mean, he won the big one in Vegas.